I told my co-worker about the Monty Hall problem and he went walking around the office with three pieces of paper...
I told my co-worker about the Monty Hall problem and he went walking around the office with three pieces of paper trying it on people because he didn't believe me that switching leads to better odds.
https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem
https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem
They key distinction to point out when is explaining is to remind people that Monty Hall is an intelligent actor and ALWAYS shows you an empty door. If he didn't, the odds would work as anticipated.
ReplyDeleteBut with Monty Hall interfering it becomes simple:
If you choose door 1 there are only three options:
You are right, he shows you door two. If you switch you lose.
It is behind door three, he shows you door two, if you switch you win.
It is behind door two, he shows you door three, if you switch you win.
Zzarchov Kowolski nice succinct explanation
ReplyDeleteI want to win, so I need one of two strategies:
ReplyDelete(a) If my strategy is to stick to my guns, then I will win if I originally picked the car. This is a 1-in-3 chance.
(b) If my strategy is to switch my choice, then I will win if I originally picked a goat. This is a 2-in-3 chance.
They have this discussion in the movie "21" - it baffled me then why it wasn't still 50-50.
ReplyDeletemythbusters didn and episode on this very thing.
ReplyDeleteZzarchov Kowolskiwhen I explained that he looked at me for a second, then said, "I still think it's 50/50."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/monty-hall-problems
ReplyDeleteHe got it when I explained, "What if there are 100 doors?"
ReplyDelete